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Polymarket Pandemic 2026 crowd odds · snapshot
Outbreak — MV Hondius Andes hantavirus cluster

Independent tracker · 11 cases · 3 deaths · Atlantic crossing

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Total cases
— confirmed · — probable
Deaths
— % CFR
Countries (residence)
aboard from 23 nationalities
Passengers + crew
— passengers · — crew
Why this is being watched Andes orthohantavirus is the only hantavirus with documented person-to-person transmission, though spread typically requires close, prolonged contact. WHO and ECDC continue to assess the wider-population risk as extremely low.
The ship

MV Hondius — Antarctic cruise, Atlantic transit

Vessel
Operator · flag
Departed
Arrived
EQUATOR Ushuaia · 1 Apr Antarctic · 6 Apr · index case Cape Town · 27 Apr medevac · Johannesburg death Cabo Verde · 2 May death · suspected evaluated Tenerife · 10 May arrival · disembarkation
Death event Confirmed cluster event Port of call Residence country
Case line list

Detailed cases reported to WHO/ECDC

Cases with patient-level detail from WHO DON599 (4 May 2026). Additional cases reported between 4 May and 12 May are summarised below — national agencies have not yet released per-patient details.

# Onset Sex Status Outcome Location Notes
Geographic spread

Residence country of confirmed and probable cases

Cases have returned to or been repatriated to seven countries. Andes virus has the only documented person-to-person transmission of any hantavirus, but transmission typically requires close, prolonged contact.

Polymarket — pandemic odds

Crowd-priced probability of a hantavirus pandemic in 2026

Snapshot of major Polymarket hantavirus markets. Click through for live odds. These are betting-market probabilities, not epidemiological forecasts.

Sources

Primary sources

When sources conflict, prefer WHO and ECDC official assessments. This tracker is unofficial.

Unofficial tracker. hanta2026.org is an independent, source-linked visualization of publicly reported case data for the MV Hondius Andes hantavirus cluster. It is not a medical, public-health, or financial source. For travel guidance, defer to your national health agency. For pandemic probability, defer to WHO and ECDC. Polymarket probabilities are crowd-sourced betting markets, not epidemiological forecasts. Anonymous pageview counts are recorded via Cloudflare Web Analytics — no cookies, no tracking IDs, no personal data, no third-party advertisers.