HANTA2026 — MV Hondius Andes Hantavirus Tracker

hanta2026

Polymarket Pandemic 2026 — crowd odds · snapshot

Outbreak — MV Hondius Andes hantavirus cluster

Independent tracker · 13 cases · 3 deaths · no new case since 25 May

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Total cases

— confirmed · — probable

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Deaths

— % CFR

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Countries (residence)

aboard from 23 nationalities

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Passengers + crew

— passengers · — crew

Why this is being watched Andes orthohantavirus is the only hantavirus with documented person-to-person transmission, though spread typically requires close, prolonged contact. WHO estimates the outbreak's effective reproduction number (R_t) at 0.7 as of 22 May — below the 1.0 threshold for self-sustaining spread — and WHO and ECDC continue to assess the wider-population risk as extremely low.

The ship

MV Hondius — Antarctic cruise, Atlantic transit

Vessel

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Operator · flag

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Departed

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Arrived

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Death event Confirmed cluster event Port of call Residence country

Case line list

Detailed cases reported to WHO/ECDC

Cases with patient-level detail from WHO DON599 (4 May 2026). Additional cases reported between 4 and 25 May — including a crew member in the Netherlands (22 May) and a Spanish national in Madrid (25 May) — are summarised below; national agencies have not yet released per-patient details.

#	Onset	Sex	Status	Outcome	Location	Notes

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Geographic spread

Residence country of confirmed and probable cases

Cases have returned to or been repatriated to seven countries. Andes virus has the only documented person-to-person transmission of any hantavirus, but transmission typically requires close, prolonged contact.

Contact tracing — who is being monitored

More than 650 contacts identified across 33 countries and territories

WHO DG Tedros (24 June 2026) updated the global aggregate to more than 650 contacts across 33 countries, territories and areas, about 53% high-risk and 47% low-risk. The widely-circulated 1,400–1,800 figure is not in any WHO, ECDC, or CDC document. On 18 June 2026, almost all European passengers and crew ended their 42-day quarantine; RIVM confirmed all retested negative before release. On 22 June 2026, the final 6 US nationals at the National Quarantine Unit (UNMC, Nebraska) completed their 42-day windows; HHS formally concluded the US federal response on 23 June. As of 24 June, all but 54 identified contacts have completed quarantine; the remaining 54 are expected to finish by 2 July 2026, the date WHO has set for formally declaring the outbreak over if no new cases emerge.

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Incubation period — for context

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Fact-check — claims circulating on social media

What the official sources actually say

Several claims have spread across Threads and X over the past week. Below, each claim is matched against WHO, ECDC, and CDC source documents. Sources are linked in the panel below.

Polymarket — pandemic odds

Crowd-priced probability of a hantavirus pandemic in 2026

Snapshot of major Polymarket hantavirus markets. Click through for live odds. These are betting-market probabilities, not epidemiological forecasts.

Sources

Primary sources

When sources conflict, prefer WHO and ECDC official assessments. This tracker is unofficial.

Unofficial tracker. hanta2026.org is an independent, source-linked visualization of publicly reported case data for the MV Hondius Andes hantavirus cluster. It is not a medical, public-health, or financial source. For travel guidance, defer to your national health agency. For pandemic probability, defer to WHO and ECDC. Polymarket probabilities are crowd-sourced betting markets, not epidemiological forecasts. Anonymous pageview counts are recorded via Cloudflare Web Analytics — no cookies, no tracking IDs, no personal data, no third-party advertisers.