HANTA2026 — MV Hondius Andes Hantavirus Tracker

hanta2026

Polymarket Pandemic 2026 — crowd odds · snapshot

Outbreak — MV Hondius Andes hantavirus cluster

Independent tracker · 13 cases · 3 deaths · no new case since 25 May

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Total cases

— confirmed · — probable

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Deaths

— % CFR

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Countries (residence)

aboard from 23 nationalities

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Aboard · full voyage

— passengers · — crew

Why this is being watched Andes orthohantavirus is the only hantavirus with documented person-to-person transmission, though spread typically requires close, prolonged contact. WHO estimates the outbreak's effective reproduction number (R_t) at 0.7 as of 22 May — below the 1.0 threshold for self-sustaining spread — and WHO and ECDC continue to assess the wider-population risk as extremely low.

The ship

MV Hondius — Antarctic cruise, Atlantic transit

Vessel

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Operator · flag

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Departed

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Arrived

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Cohort under investigation

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Aboard at Tenerife (10 May)

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Death event Confirmed cluster event Port of call Residence country

Case line list

Detailed cases reported to WHO/ECDC

Cases with patient-level detail from WHO DON599 (4 May 2026), with clinical status for Cases 3 and 9 updated from Table 1 of the Eurosurveillance outbreak investigation as amended on 9 July 2026. Additional cases reported between 4 and 25 May, including a crew member in the Netherlands (22 May) and a Spanish national in Madrid (25 May), are summarised below; national agencies have not released per-patient details for all of them.

#	Onset	Sex	Status	Outcome	Location	Notes

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Geographic spread

Residence country of confirmed and probable cases

Cases have returned to or been repatriated to seven countries. Andes virus has the only documented person-to-person transmission of any hantavirus, but transmission typically requires close, prolonged contact.

Contact tracing — who is being monitored

653 contacts identified across 33 countries and territories — tracing formally closed

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Incubation period — for context

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Fact-check — claims circulating on social media

What the official sources actually say

Claims that circulated on Threads and X during the outbreak, each matched against WHO, ECDC, and CDC source documents and, where the peer-reviewed investigation now settles the question, against Eurosurveillance. Sources are linked in the panel below.

Polymarket — pandemic odds

Crowd-priced probability of a hantavirus pandemic in 2026

Snapshot of major Polymarket hantavirus markets. Click through for live odds. These are betting-market probabilities, not epidemiological forecasts.

Sources

Primary sources

When sources conflict, prefer WHO and ECDC official assessments. This tracker is unofficial.

Unofficial tracker. hanta2026.org is an independent, source-linked visualization of publicly reported case data for the MV Hondius Andes hantavirus cluster. It is not a medical, public-health, or financial source. For travel guidance, defer to your national health agency. For pandemic probability, defer to WHO and ECDC. Polymarket probabilities are crowd-sourced betting markets, not epidemiological forecasts. Anonymous pageview counts are recorded via Cloudflare Web Analytics — no cookies, no tracking IDs, no personal data, no third-party advertisers.